Discussion:
BIP - Block75 - Historical and future projections
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t. khan via bitcoin-dev
2017-01-09 19:52:31 UTC
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Using daily average block size over the past year (source:
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?daysAverageString=14&timespan=1year
), here's how Block75 would have altered max block sizes:

[image: Inline image 1]

As of today, the max block size would be 1,135KB.

Looking forward and using the last year's growth rate as a model:

[image: Inline image 2]

This shows the max block size one year from now would be 2,064KB, if
Block75 activated today.

Of course, this is just an estimate, but even accounting for a substantial
increase in transactions in the last quarter of 2017 and changes brought
about by SegWit (hopefully) activating, Block75 alters the max size in such
a way that allows for growth, keeps blocks as small as possible, *and*
maintains transaction fees at a level similar to May/June 2016.

If anyone has an alternate way to model future behavior, please run it
through the Block75 algorithm.

Every 2016 blocks, do this:

new max blocksize = x + (x * (AVERAGE_CAPACITY - TARGET_CAPACITY))

TARGET_CAPACITY = 0.75 //Block75's target of keeping blocks 75% full
AVERAGE_CAPACITY = average percentage full of the last 2016 blocks, as a
decimal
x = current max block size


Thanks,

- t.k.

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